Data study · 十羊九不全

Do Goat Years Have Fewer Births? Registry Data Says No

No. In birth registries from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, Goat years average within a few percent of the years around them, while Dragon years run 7.2–11.8% higher and Tiger years 3.7–8.2% lower.

The Dragon and Tiger patterns match what earlier studies found (Daniel Goodkind, 1996, for Singapore; Paul Yip, Joseph Lee and Y. B. Cheung, 2002, for Hong Kong; Sumit Agarwal, Wenlan Qian, Tien Foo Sing and Poh Lin Tan, 2017, for Singapore's Dragon cohorts), which shows the method can detect a zodiac effect when one exists.

Classical Ba Zi (Four Pillars) texts do not single out the 未 Goat branch as an unlucky birth year. Where the saying comes from.

By Shao Chongkai (邵崇愷) · Published October 9, 2026 · Updated October 9, 2026

Shao Chongkai compiled the data and wrote this study. About the author

What the data show

Goat years are ordinary. In the 4 series from Taiwan, Hong Kong and Singapore, the average Goat year runs −2.3% to −0.1% against the average of the two years either side. Of the 12 animals, the Goat ranks between 4th and 7th from the bottom.
The Dragon and Tiger effects are real in the same data. Dragon years average +7.2% to +11.8% and are the highest of the 12 animals in all 4 series. Tiger years average −3.7% to −8.2% and are the lowest in 3 of the 4. In Singapore, births with a non-Chinese father, a group less likely to follow the Chinese zodiac, show no Dragon peak: +1.8%, against +11.8% for births with a Chinese father.
The one Goat year that stands out, mainland China 2015, coincides with the two-child policy. China's 2015 birth rate is −9.6% against the average of 2013, 2014, 2016 and 2017. Two of those comparison years are when the selective (2014) and universal (2016) two-child policies took effect. China's other Goat years are 1991 (−0.3%) and 2003 (−2.5%). Because of 2015, the Goat has the lowest average of the 12 animals in the China series (−4.2%, from 3 Goat years).

Download the data (CSV) Year-by-year comparisons (CSV)

Sources: Taiwan Ministry of the Interior, Hong Kong Census and Statistics Department, Singapore Department of Statistics, China National Bureau of Statistics and Japan's Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare. Full table references are in Sources. Data licensed CC BY 4.0.

The Goat against the other 11 animals

Each bar is one zodiac animal. It shows how far that animal's years sat above or below the average of the two years before and the two years after them, averaged over every such year in the series. A bar near zero means an ordinary year. If families avoided Goat years, the gold Goat bar would sit near the bottom, the way the Tiger does.

The first 5 charts are places where many families follow the Chinese zodiac. The last 2 are comparison groups where few do. Every chart uses the same scale, ±15%.

Taiwan (registered births) Goat −0.2%, 4th lowest of the 12 · Dragon +10.2% · Tiger −8.2%

Numbers behind this chart

Taiwan (registered births): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	+1.5%	6	11
Ox	+1.0%	6	9
Tiger	−8.2%	6	1
Rabbit	−1.5%	6	3
Dragon	+10.2%	5	12
Snake	−3.0%	5	2
Horse	+0.7%	5	8
Goat	−0.2%	5	4
Monkey	+0.2%	5	6
Rooster	−0.1%	5	5
Dog	+0.2%	5	7
Pig	+1.2%	5	10

Hong Kong (all births) Goat −2.3%, 4th lowest of the 12 · Dragon +7.2% · Tiger −3.7%

Numbers behind this chart

Hong Kong (all births): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	−0.6%	5	7
Ox	−1.4%	5	5
Tiger	−3.7%	5	3
Rabbit	+2.0%	6	10
Dragon	+7.2%	5	12
Snake	−6.2%	5	1
Horse	−3.8%	5	2
Goat	−2.3%	5	4
Monkey	−0.7%	5	6
Rooster	+0.3%	5	8
Dog	+1.7%	5	9
Pig	+3.1%	5	11

Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers Goat −1.9%, 6th lowest of the 12 · Dragon +9.7% · Tiger −7.5%

Numbers behind this chart

Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers: average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	+0.9%	3	10
Ox	−3.0%	3	3
Tiger	−7.5%	3	1
Rabbit	−2.3%	3	4
Dragon	+9.7%	3	12
Snake	−3.2%	3	2
Horse	−0.8%	3	7
Goat	−1.9%	3	6
Monkey	+0.7%	3	9
Rooster	−2.0%	3	5
Dog	−0.1%	3	8
Pig	+6.3%	3	11

Singapore (Chinese father) Goat −0.1%, 7th lowest of the 12 · Dragon +11.8% · Tiger −7.9%

Numbers behind this chart

Singapore (Chinese father): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	+3.1%	5	10
Ox	+4.4%	5	11
Tiger	−7.9%	6	1
Rabbit	−2.8%	6	3
Dragon	+11.8%	5	12
Snake	−4.4%	5	2
Horse	+1.0%	5	9
Goat	−0.1%	5	7
Monkey	−1.8%	5	4
Rooster	−1.3%	5	5
Dog	−0.1%	5	6
Pig	+0.2%	5	8

Mainland China (birth rate) Goat −4.2%, the lowest of the 12 · Dragon +4.2% · Tiger −2.9%

Numbers behind this chart

Mainland China (birth rate): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	−2.3%	4	3
Ox	−2.1%	4	4
Tiger	−2.9%	4	2
Rabbit	+1.0%	4	8
Dragon	+4.2%	3	12
Snake	−1.3%	3	5
Horse	+1.9%	3	9
Goat	−4.2%	3	1
Monkey	−1.0%	4	6
Rooster	+3.9%	4	11
Dog	+2.0%	4	10
Pig	−0.1%	4	7

Singapore (non-Chinese father, control) Goat −0.4%, 7th lowest of the 12 · Dragon +1.8% · Tiger −1.1%

Numbers behind this chart

Singapore (non-Chinese father, control): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	+2.8%	5	12
Ox	+2.5%	5	11
Tiger	−1.1%	6	3
Rabbit	−2.2%	6	1
Dragon	+1.8%	5	10
Snake	−0.3%	5	8
Horse	+0.9%	5	9
Goat	−0.4%	5	7
Monkey	−0.5%	5	6
Rooster	−1.0%	5	4
Dog	−0.7%	5	5
Pig	−1.2%	5	2

Japan (control) Goat +2.4%, the highest of the 12 · Dragon +1.1% · Tiger +0.5%

Numbers behind this chart

Japan (control): average change by zodiac animal
Animal	Average vs 2 years either side	Years	Rank (1 = lowest)
Rat	+0.5%	6	7
Ox	+0.5%	6	5
Tiger	+0.5%	6	6
Rabbit	−0.8%	6	3
Dragon	+1.1%	6	11
Snake	+0.9%	6	9
Horse	−5.1%	6	1
Goat	+2.4%	6	12
Monkey	+0.5%	6	8
Rooster	−2.7%	6	2
Dog	+1.0%	6	10
Pig	+0.2%	6	4

Births by year, Goat years shaded

One chart per series, each on its own scale, from 1950 or the first year the agency publishes. Gold bands mark Goat years, counted by calendar year because that is how agencies publish. A triangle marks a Goat year that sat further from the two years either side than at least 9 in 10 years of the same series, with its change printed beside it. Under each chart is the table behind it.

Taiwan (registered births)

Births per year. Source: Ministry of the Interior, Department of Household Registration (Taiwan). Gold bands and dots are Goat years.

Goat years: 1967 (−6.9%), 1979 (+3.7%), 1991 (−0.8%), 2003 (−2.4%), 2015 (+5.2%). Their average is −0.2%, 4th lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Dragon (+10.2%); the lowest is the Tiger (−8.2%).

The Ministry of the Interior counts births by registration date, not date of birth, so late registrations can move births between calendar years. The largest Goat-year dip is 1967, and its comparison years include 1966, a Fire Horse year.

Table: Taiwan (registered births), 1958–2025

Taiwan (registered births): births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1958		413,679	—
1959		423,863	—
1960		422,319	+0.2%
1961		422,740	−0.5%
1962		426,325	+0.8%
1963		427,212	+1.8%
1964		419,797	−0.1%
1965		409,620	−0.2%
1966		418,327	+4.4%
1967	Goat	376,806	−6.9%
1968		396,886	+0.2%
1969		393,455	+1.3%
1970		396,479	+2.9%
1971		382,797	+0.3%
1972		368,067	−3.0%
1973		369,022	−0.9%
1974		369,671	−3.5%
1975		369,349	−5.4%
1976		425,125	+9.9%
1977		397,373	−2.4%
1978		410,783	−1.0%
1979	Goat	424,034	+3.7%
1980		413,881	+0.1%
1981		414,069	+1.8%
1982		405,263	+2.4%
1983		383,439	−0.2%
1984		371,008	+2.8%
1985		346,208	+0.5%
1986		309,230	−9.9%
1987		314,024	−4.3%
1988		342,031	+7.4%
1989		315,299	−4.0%
1990		335,618	+3.2%
1991	Goat	321,932	−0.8%
1992		321,632	−1.5%
1993		325,613	+0.5%
1994		322,938	−0.8%
1995		329,581	+1.4%
1996		325,545	+4.2%
1997		326,002	+7.7%
1998		271,450	−12.5%
1999		283,661	−2.4%
2000		305,312	+14.9%
2001		260,354	−2.1%
2002		247,530	−1.9%
2003	Goat	227,070	−2.4%
2004		216,419	−2.2%
2005		205,854	−3.4%
2006		204,459	−0.9%
2007		204,414	+2.2%
2008		198,733	+3.6%
2009		191,310	−0.2%
2010		166,886	−18.2%
2011		196,627	−0.0%
2012		229,481	+18.7%
2013		199,113	−6.3%
2014		210,383	−1.1%
2015	Goat	213,598	+5.2%
2016		208,440	+4.3%
2017		193,844	−0.8%
2018		181,601	−2.5%
2019		177,767	+2.4%
2020		165,249	+1.4%
2021		153,820	−0.4%
2022		138,986	−5.7%
2023		135,571	+1.3%
2024		134,856	—
2025		107,812	—

Hong Kong (all births)

Births per year. Source: Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong). Gold bands and dots are Goat years.

Goat years: 1967 (−1.5%), 1979 (−1.5%), 1991 (−2.0%), 2003 (−7.5%), 2015 (+1.2%). Their average is −2.3%, 4th lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Dragon (+7.2%); the lowest is the Snake (−6.2%).

Hong Kong's Census and Statistics Department publishes births in thousands to one decimal place, so every figure is rounded to the nearest 100. The deepest Goat year, −7.5% in 2003, coincides with the SARS outbreak.

Table: Hong Kong (all births), 1961–2025

Hong Kong (all births): births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1961		110,900	—
1962		112,500	—
1963		114,600	+6.1%
1964		107,600	+2.5%
1965		101,100	+0.5%
1966		91,800	−3.3%
1967	Goat	88,200	−1.5%
1968		82,700	−3.2%
1969		82,500	+0.1%
1970		79,100	−2.7%
1971		79,800	−1.5%
1972		80,300	−1.1%
1973		82,300	+1.8%
1974		83,600	+4.2%
1975		79,800	−1.6%
1976		78,500	−3.2%
1977		80,000	−0.4%
1978		81,000	−0.6%
1979	Goat	82,000	−1.5%
1980		85,300	+1.6%
1981		86,800	+3.1%
1982		86,100	+3.5%
1983		83,300	+2.1%
1984		77,300	−2.5%
1985		76,100	+0.7%
1986		71,600	−4.1%
1987		70,000	−4.3%
1988		75,400	+8.1%
1989		69,600	−1.1%
1990		67,700	−4.7%
1991	Goat	68,300	−2.0%
1992		70,900	+2.0%
1993		70,500	+0.9%
1994		71,600	+4.8%
1995		68,600	+3.7%
1996		63,300	+0.3%
1997		59,300	+0.4%
1998		53,000	−7.0%
1999		51,300	−4.4%
2000		54,100	+7.8%
2001		48,200	−3.9%
2002		48,200	−3.2%
2003	Goat	47,000	−7.5%
2004		49,800	−8.6%
2005		57,100	−2.1%
2006		65,600	+2.3%
2007		70,900	+0.0%
2008		78,800	+2.6%
2009		82,100	−1.6%
2010		88,600	+1.8%
2011		95,500	+19.6%
2012		91,600	+20.7%
2013		57,100	−26.2%
2014		62,300	−7.5%
2015	Goat	59,900	+1.2%
2016		60,900	+4.8%
2017		56,500	−0.6%
2018		53,700	+0.7%
2019		52,900	+11.3%
2020		43,000	−2.3%
2021		37,000	−8.4%
2022		32,500	−13.3%
2023		33,200	−3.3%
2024		36,700	—
2025		31,100	—

Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers

Births per year. Source: Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong). Gold bands and dots are Goat years.

Goat years: 1991 (−2.0%), 2003 (−4.4%), 2015 (+0.6%). Their average is −1.9%, 6th lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Dragon (+9.7%); the lowest is the Tiger (−7.5%).

This series subtracts births to Mainland women (C&SD table 115-01012) from all births (115-01011). That removes a population that grew sharply in 2001–2012 and was cut by the 2013 delivery quota for non-local women. It starts in 1986, so it covers 3 Goat years, and it carries the rounding of both source tables.

Table: Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers, 1986–2025

Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers: births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1986		71,206	—
1987		69,550	—
1988		74,536	+9.0%
1989		67,881	−0.3%
1990		64,859	−3.8%
1991	Goat	63,336	−2.0%
1992		64,062	+1.6%
1993		61,658	−1.9%
1994		62,333	+2.1%
1995		61,575	+5.1%
1996		56,806	+1.3%
1997		53,470	+2.1%
1998		46,891	−6.4%
1999		44,120	−5.5%
2000		45,927	+7.4%
2001		40,390	−3.0%
2002		39,694	−0.6%
2003	Goat	36,872	−4.4%
2004		36,591	−4.7%
2005		37,562	−3.8%
2006		39,468	−3.0%
2007		43,326	+3.7%
2008		45,235	+3.0%
2009		44,847	−4.6%
2010		47,952	−4.1%
2011		51,518	+1.6%
2012		58,401	+12.7%
2013		51,603	−6.4%
2014		56,276	+2.2%
2015	Goat	54,334	+0.6%
2016		55,921	+5.3%
2017		52,166	−0.2%
2018		49,717	+0.4%
2019		49,159	+10.1%
2020		40,824	−1.8%
2021		35,841	−6.6%
2022		31,503	−12.1%
2023		31,949	−2.9%
2024		34,825	—
2025		29,506	—

Singapore (Chinese father)

Births per year. Source: Singapore Department of Statistics. Gold bands and dots are Goat years.

Goat years: 1967 (−1.0%), 1979 (+2.9%), 1991 (−1.2%), 2003 (−4.8%), 2015 (+3.8%). Their average is −0.1%, 7th lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Dragon (+11.8%); the lowest is the Tiger (−7.9%).

Singapore's Department of Statistics counts births by the father's ethnic group. Births with a Chinese father are the closest available stand-in for families that follow the Chinese zodiac. The table covers residents and non-residents together, so it is a stand-in, not a clean count.

Table: Singapore (Chinese father), 1960–2025

Singapore (Chinese father): births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1960		44,964	—
1961		43,059	—
1962		41,933	−2.0%
1963		42,214	+2.2%
1964		40,937	+1.2%
1965		39,337	−0.0%
1966		38,366	+2.1%
1967	Goat	35,850	−1.0%
1968		34,248	−3.2%
1969		32,873	−6.2%
1970		34,410	−2.1%
1971		35,608	+0.0%
1972		37,797	+7.6%
1973		37,322	+8.8%
1974		33,126	−4.9%
1975		30,635	−8.2%
1976		33,624	+9.0%
1977		29,402	−6.2%
1978		30,177	−2.7%
1979	Goat	30,925	+2.9%
1980		30,142	−1.2%
1981		30,488	+1.7%
1982		30,502	+3.7%
1983		28,321	−4.9%
1984		28,744	+1.3%
1985		29,352	+4.6%
1986		25,361	−19.6%
1987		29,839	−4.7%
1988		38,245	+24.6%
1989		32,330	−5.5%
1990		35,296	+2.7%
1991	Goat	33,423	−1.2%
1992		33,475	−2.3%
1993		34,251	+2.0%
1994		34,080	+1.5%
1995		33,384	−0.2%
1996		33,230	+3.5%
1997		32,285	+4.0%
1998		28,641	−9.4%
1999		28,973	−3.4%
2000		31,967	+14.7%
2001		27,063	−3.4%
2002		26,782	−0.3%
2003	Goat	24,326	−4.8%
2004		24,060	−3.8%
2005		24,313	−1.2%
2006		24,646	−0.5%
2007		25,390	+2.5%
2008		25,331	+3.2%
2009		24,799	+0.5%
2010		23,303	−8.2%
2011		24,691	+0.0%
2012		26,760	+9.4%
2013		23,890	−7.1%
2014		25,958	+3.0%
2015	Goat	25,412	+3.8%
2016		24,749	+1.7%
2017		23,360	−2.8%
2018		22,650	−3.0%
2019		23,305	+3.6%
2020		22,012	+0.0%
2021		22,002	+4.0%
2022		20,073	−3.5%
2023		19,258	−2.4%
2024		19,926	—
2025		16,902	—

Mainland China (birth rate)

Births per 1,000 people. Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China. Gold bands and dots are Goat years; a triangle marks an unusually large Goat-year change.

Goat years: 1991 (−0.3%), 2003 (−2.5%), 2015 (−9.6%). Their average is −4.2%, the lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Dragon (+4.2%); the lowest is the Goat (−4.2%).

The National Bureau of Statistics publishes a birth rate per 1,000 people, not a count, and this series begins in 1978. 1979 has no comparison because it needs 1977, which is not in the series. In 2015 the rate was 11.99, between 13.83 in 2014 and 13.57 in 2016, the years the two-child policies took effect, so the comparison years themselves are unusual. This is the weakest series on the page: annual rates only, from 1978, and the 2025 Statistical Yearbook revised several earlier years after the 2020 census.

Table: Mainland China (birth rate), 1978–2025

Mainland China (birth rate): births per 1,000 people by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births per 1,000 people	vs average of 2 years either side
1978		18.25	—
1979	Goat	17.82	—
1980		18.21	−8.1%
1981		20.91	+6.5%
1982		22.28	+12.5%
1983		20.19	−4.0%
1984		19.90	−7.4%
1985		21.04	−2.0%
1986		22.43	+3.6%
1987		23.33	+6.7%
1988		22.37	+1.2%
1989		21.58	−0.1%
1990		21.06	+2.9%
1991	Goat	19.68	−0.3%
1992		18.24	−4.7%
1993		18.09	−0.5%
1994		17.70	+0.5%
1995		17.12	−1.2%
1996		16.98	+1.3%
1997		16.57	+3.0%
1998		15.64	+0.5%
1999		14.64	−1.8%
2000		14.03	−0.7%
2001		13.38	−0.8%
2002		12.86	−1.3%
2003	Goat	12.41	−2.5%
2004		12.29	−1.2%
2005		12.40	+1.5%
2006		12.09	−1.2%
2007		12.10	−0.4%
2008		12.14	+1.1%
2009		11.95	−3.3%
2010		11.90	−8.3%
2011		13.27	+3.2%
2012		14.57	+12.0%
2013		13.03	−2.9%
2014		13.83	+4.1%
2015	Goat	11.99	−9.6%
2016		13.57	+10.1%
2017		12.64	+8.0%
2018		10.86	−3.8%
2019		10.41	+5.3%
2020		8.52	−4.2%
2021		7.52	−6.3%
2022		6.77	−7.3%
2023		6.39	−4.2%
2024		6.77	—
2025		5.63	—

Singapore (non-Chinese father, control)

Births per year. Source: Singapore Department of Statistics. Gold bands and dots are Goat years.

Goat years: 1967 (+2.5%), 1979 (−4.0%), 1991 (−0.5%), 2003 (−3.7%), 2015 (+3.4%). Their average is −0.4%, 7th lowest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Rat (+2.8%); the lowest is the Rabbit (−2.2%).

Births with a non-Chinese father are all births minus the Chinese-father count. This group is less likely to follow the Chinese zodiac, so a zodiac effect should be weaker or missing here, and the Dragon peak is: +1.8%, against +11.8% for births with a Chinese father.

In 2003 this group moved −3.7% while births with a Chinese father moved −4.8%. Both fell together, which fits a shared shock that year (SARS, the economy) better than a pattern specific to one community.

Table: Singapore (non-Chinese father, control), 1960–2025

Singapore (non-Chinese father, control): births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1960		16,811	—
1961		16,871	—
1962		17,044	−0.1%
1963		17,316	+2.5%
1964		17,280	+3.1%
1965		16,388	−0.1%
1966		16,314	+6.3%
1967	Goat	14,710	+2.5%
1968		12,993	−4.2%
1969		11,689	−7.8%
1970		11,524	−4.1%
1971		11,480	−0.3%
1972		11,881	+7.8%
1973		10,947	+2.3%
1974		10,142	−1.8%
1975		9,313	−5.0%
1976		9,159	−2.8%
1977		8,962	−4.6%
1978		9,264	−5.1%
1979	Goat	9,854	−4.0%
1980		11,075	+2.9%
1981		11,762	+3.8%
1982		12,152	+1.5%
1983		12,264	−1.6%
1984		12,812	+1.3%
1985		13,132	+1.3%
1986		13,018	−4.3%
1987		13,777	−1.9%
1988		14,712	+1.5%
1989		15,339	+2.2%
1990		15,846	+2.8%
1991	Goat	15,691	−0.5%
1992		15,927	+1.1%
1993		15,974	+2.5%
1994		15,474	−1.0%
1995		15,251	−1.4%
1996		15,347	+1.0%
1997		15,048	+0.3%
1998		15,023	+0.5%
1999		14,363	−3.4%
2000		15,030	+4.1%
2001		14,388	+1.8%
2002		13,978	+0.4%
2003	Goat	13,159	−3.7%
2004		13,114	−2.8%
2005		13,179	−2.5%
2006		13,671	−0.4%
2007		14,100	+0.5%
2008		14,495	+1.4%
2009		14,771	+1.5%
2010		14,664	−2.5%
2011		14,963	−2.2%
2012		15,903	+3.0%
2013		15,830	−0.9%
2014		16,274	+0.1%
2015	Goat	16,773	+3.4%
2016		16,502	+0.5%
2017		16,255	−0.9%
2018		16,389	+0.4%
2019		15,974	−3.0%
2020		16,578	+2.7%
2021		16,670	+6.9%
2022		15,532	+1.3%
2023		14,283	−3.1%
2024		13,777	—
2025		12,962	—

Japan (control)

Births per year. Source: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (Japan). Gold bands and dots are Goat years; a triangle marks an unusually large Goat-year change.

Goat years: 1955 (+0.8%), 1967 (+11.5%), 1979 (+0.0%), 1991 (+0.6%), 2003 (−0.1%), 2015 (+1.7%). Their average is +2.4%, the highest of the 12 animals. The highest animal here is the Goat (+2.4%); the lowest is the Horse (−5.1%).

Japan has no Goat-year tradition of this kind, which makes it a comparison group. It has its own superstition about the Fire Horse (丙午): the Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare counts 1,360,974 births in 1966, against 1,823,697 in 1965 and 1,935,647 in 1967. That year alone puts 1966 at −25.9% and makes the Horse the lowest animal here.

The same trough sits among the comparison years for 1967, so 1967 reads +11.5% and the Goat ends up with Japan's highest average. That is a side effect of the method next to a real zodiac dip, not a Goat-year boom. The registry starts in 1899; this study uses 1950 onward so Japan's comparison starts in the same decade as the other series. Each series covers the Goat years its registry reaches, listed in its table.

Table: Japan (control), 1950–2025

Japan (control): births by year with each year's change against the two years either side
Year	Animal	Births	vs average of 2 years either side
1950		2,337,507	—
1951		2,137,689	—
1952		2,005,162	−1.1%
1953		1,868,040	−2.2%
1954		1,769,580	−2.6%
1955	Goat	1,730,692	+0.8%
1956		1,665,278	−0.9%
1957		1,566,713	−6.1%
1958		1,653,469	+2.3%
1959		1,626,088	+1.4%
1960		1,606,041	−1.0%
1961		1,589,372	−2.3%
1962		1,618,616	−1.5%
1963		1,659,521	−1.6%
1964		1,716,761	+6.3%
1965		1,823,697	+9.3%
1966		1,360,974	−25.9%
1967	Goat	1,935,647	+11.5%
1968		1,871,839	+5.1%
1969		1,889,815	−2.4%
1970		1,934,239	−0.8%
1971		2,000,973	+0.6%
1972		2,038,682	+1.2%
1973		2,091,983	+5.0%
1974		2,029,989	+3.2%
1975		1,901,440	−1.3%
1976		1,832,617	−0.9%
1977		1,755,100	−0.9%
1978		1,708,643	+0.4%
1979	Goat	1,642,580	+0.0%
1980		1,576,889	−1.4%
1981		1,529,455	−2.0%
1982		1,515,392	−0.7%
1983		1,508,687	+1.1%
1984		1,489,780	+2.1%
1985		1,431,577	−0.0%
1986		1,382,946	−0.9%
1987		1,346,658	+0.2%
1988		1,314,006	+1.1%
1989		1,246,802	−2.3%
1990		1,221,585	−2.1%
1991	Goat	1,223,245	+0.6%
1992		1,208,989	−0.7%
1993		1,188,282	−2.2%
1994		1,238,328	+3.4%
1995		1,187,064	−1.6%
1996		1,206,555	+0.1%
1997		1,191,665	−0.2%
1998		1,203,147	+1.0%
1999		1,177,669	−1.0%
2000		1,190,547	+1.2%
2001		1,170,662	+0.8%
2002		1,153,855	+0.4%
2003	Goat	1,123,610	−0.1%
2004		1,110,721	+0.2%
2005		1,062,530	−3.8%
2006		1,092,674	+0.4%
2007		1,089,818	+1.0%
2008		1,091,156	+0.9%
2009		1,070,036	−0.5%
2010		1,071,305	+0.8%
2011		1,050,807	−0.1%
2012		1,037,232	−0.2%
2013		1,029,817	+0.5%
2014		1,003,609	−0.9%
2015	Goat	1,005,721	+1.7%
2016		977,242	+0.9%
2017		946,146	+0.5%
2018		918,400	+1.2%
2019		865,239	−1.6%
2020		840,835	−0.1%
2021		811,622	+1.3%
2022		770,759	+0.6%
2023		727,288	−1.0%
2024		686,173	—
2025		671,270	—

What the numbers do and don't show

Birth counts are shaped by many things at once. These are the ones that complicate a Goat-year reading, and we state them before any conclusion.

Two-child policies, 2014 and 2016. Both fall among the comparison years for mainland China's 2015 Goat year.
SARS, 2003. The outbreak fell in a Goat year in Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan and mainland China at once, so it cannot be separated from any zodiac effect in 2003.
Japan's 1966 Fire Horse year sits among the comparison years for 1967, which makes Japan's 1967 look high and Taiwan's 1967 harder to read.
Hong Kong Mainland-mother births, 2001–2012, and the 2013 delivery quota for non-local women change who is counted. The excluding-Mainland-mothers series removes that population.
Hong Kong rounding. Counts are published to the nearest 100, which matters for small changes.
Taiwan registration basis. Counts are by registration date, not date of birth, so late registrations shift births across years.
China is rates only, from 1978. Official earlier national figures were not retrievable from the National Bureau of Statistics, so the 1955 and 1967 Goat years are missing for China.
Few years per animal. Each average rests on 3 to 6 years per series, so one shock year can move it by a point or more.
Calendar years are not zodiac years. The zodiac year runs roughly February to February, and agencies publish by calendar year, so each calendar year stands in for the zodiac year that starts in it. For Singapore and Taiwan, where monthly counts exist, recounting Goat years from February to January changes their figures only slightly and does not change the result. Those realigned figures are not in the CSV.

Birth counts also reflect many choices families make for reasons other than the zodiac. This study measures counts. It does not measure why anyone had a baby when they did.

The saying, and where it comes from

十羊九不全 (shí yáng jiǔ bù quán) is usually translated "of ten sheep, nine are incomplete" — a folk saying that people born in Goat (Sheep) years face hardship.

Its origin is disputed. Explanations in circulation include sheep being raised for slaughter, a claimed corruption of an older auspicious phrase 十羊九福全, and a late-Qing story tied to Empress Dowager Cixi, who was born in a Goat year. None has solid documentary support, and the saying does not appear in the classical astrological texts, so we present these as folklore, not history.

Classical Ba Zi (Four Pillars) texts do not single out the 未 Goat branch as an unlucky birth year.

In Chinese astrology, the Goat, Sheep and Ram are the same sign: 未 (wèi), the eighth Earthly Branch.

The Goat years in this study and their stem-branch pairs: 1955 乙未, 1967 丁未, 1979 己未, 1991 辛未, 2003 癸未, 2015 乙未. 2027 is 丁未, a Fire Goat year, the same pair as 1967. Each Goat year runs roughly February to February, not January to December.

For the zodiac calendar, the 2027 Goat year begins on Chinese New Year, February 6, 2027. Ba Zi charts switch the year pillar at Li Chun, the start-of-spring solar term, which falls on February 4, 2027 in China (the evening of February 3 in the Americas).

A birth year sets only one of the four pillars in a Ba Zi chart. The day pillar, especially the day stem (Day Master), carries more weight in a reading than the year animal.

Babies born before Li Chun (February 4, 2027 in China; February 3 in the Americas) have a 丙午 Fire Horse year pillar for Ba Zi purposes. Babies born on February 4 or 5 are Goat under Ba Zi but still Horse under the Chinese New Year convention.

The stigma is most often aimed at daughters; it has no basis in classical Ba Zi, and we don't endorse it.

More on the 2027 sign: Year of the Fire Goat 2027.

Methodology

In plain words: for every year, we compare births with the average of the two years before and the two years after. A year 5% above that average scores +5%. We then average those scores over all the Goat years in a series, do the same for each of the other 11 animals, and see where the Goat lands among the 12. If families avoided Goat years, the Goat would sit at or near the bottom, the way the Tiger does in Taiwan and Singapore.

The technical version

For every year y from 1950 with data for y−2, y−1, y+1 and y+2, the change is value(y) ÷ mean(y−2, y−1, y+1, y+2) − 1. Years without all four comparison years get no figure.
Each year takes the zodiac animal of its calendar year: branch index (year − 4) mod 12, where Rat = 0, Tiger = 2, Dragon = 4 and Goat = 7.
For each series, the figure for an animal is the mean change over that animal's years (3 to 6 per animal). Rank 1 is the lowest of the 12.
5 series are primary (Taiwan, Hong Kong, Hong Kong excluding Mainland mothers, Singapore with a Chinese father, mainland China) and 2 are controls (Singapore with a non-Chinese father, Japan). The CSV also holds other cuts of the same births (Taiwan by date of birth and excluding Kinmen and Lienchiang, Singapore totals and other ethnic groups, Hong Kong births to Mainland women). They are marked duplicate in its role column and left out of every figure on this page.
A Goat year gets a triangle on its chart when its change, ignoring sign, is larger than that of at least 90% of all years in the same series.
Nothing is estimated or interpolated. A missing year stays missing. Two series are derived by subtracting one official figure from another and are labelled that way.
To reproduce any figure, average the deviation_pct column of the year-by-year CSV by jurisdiction and zodiac_animal. That CSV is generated from the births CSV.
The comparison is descriptive. It does not control for income, policy, migration or any other driver of births. For how Jade Zodiac handles calendar and chart calculations elsewhere, see our methodology page.

Sources

Ministry of the Interior, Department of Household Registration (Taiwan) — 戶政司人口統計資料歷年全國出生數及粗出生率 (y2s1), sheet 全國(登記), covering 1958–2025. https://www.ris.gov.tw/info-popudata/app/awFastDownload/file/y2s1-00000.xls/y2s1/00000/
Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong) — C&SD Table 115-01011 Vital events: Live births ('000), Total, covering 1961–2025. https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/api/get.php?id=115-01011&lang=en&full_series=1
Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong) — 115-01011 total minus 115-01012 total, covering 1986–2025. https://www.censtatd.gov.hk/api/get.php?id=115-01012&lang=en&full_series=1
Singapore Department of Statistics — M810051 Live-Births By Sex And Ethnic Group, Monthly (ethnic group of father) - annual = sum of 12 months, covering 1960–2025. https://tablebuilder.singstat.gov.sg/api/table/tabledata/M810051
National Bureau of Statistics of China — NBS China Statistical Yearbook 2025, Table 2-2 人口出生率、死亡率和自然增长率; 中华人民共和国2025年国民经济和社会发展统计公报, covering 1978–2025. https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/ndsj/2025/html/C02-02.jpg https://www.stats.gov.cn/sj/zxfb/202602/t20260228_1962662.html
Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare (Japan) — MHLW 令和7(2025)年人口動態統計(確定数) 統計表第2表人口動態総覧の年次推移, 出生数, covering 1950–2025. https://www.mhlw.go.jp/toukei/saikin/hw/jinkou/kakutei25/xls/06_hyoR07.xlsx

A birth year sets only one of the four pillars in a Ba Zi chart.

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How to cite

Shao Chongkai, "Do Goat Years Have Fewer Births?", Jade Zodiac, October 9, 2026, https://jadezodiac.com/year-of-the-goat-births

The data and this analysis are licensed CC BY 4.0: reuse them with attribution. Press and data questions: see About.

About the author

Shao Chongkai (邵崇愷) is the founder of Jade Zodiac. He compiled this dataset from the national statistics agencies listed above and wrote the analysis. Corrections: use the contact details on our About page.

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Changelog: 2026-10-09 — first published.